The Malthusian theory of population growth 

The Malthusian Theory of Population: Thomas Robert Malthus enunciated his views about population in his famous book, Essay on the Principle of Population as it affects the Future Improvement of Society, published in 1798.

Malthus revolted against the prevailing optimism shared by his father and Godwin that a perfect state could be attained if human restraints could be removed. Malthus objection was that the pressure of increasing population on the food supply would destroy perfection and there would be misery in the world. Malthus was severely criticised for his pessimistic views which led him to travel on the continent of Europe to gather data in support of his thesis.

·       The Malthusian doctrine is stated as follows: (1) There is a natural instinct in human beings to increase at a fast rate. As a result, population increases in geometrical progression and if unchecked doubles itself every 25 years. Thus starting from 1, population in successive periods of 25 years will be 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256 (after 200 years).

·       On the other hand, the food supply increases in a slow arithmetical progression due to the operation of the law of diminishing returns based on the supposition that the supply of land is constant. Thus the food supply in successive similar periods will be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 (after 200 years).

·       Since population increases in geometrical progression and the food supply in arithmetical progression, population tends to outrun food supply. Thus an imbalance is created which leads to over-population.

The food supply in arithmetical progression is measured on the horizontal axis and the population in geometrical progression on the vertical axis. The curve M is the Malthusian population curve which shows the relation between population growth and increase in food supply. It rises upward swiftly.

·       To control over-population resulting from the imbalance between population and food supply, Malthus suggested preventive checks and positive checks. The preventive checks are applied by a man to control the birth rate. They are foresight, late marriage, celibacy, moral restraint, etc.

·        If people fail to check growth of population by the adoption of preventive checks, positive checks operate in the form of vice, misery, famine, war, disease, pestilence, floods and other natural calamities which tend to reduce population and thereby bring a balance with food supply.

·       According to Malthus, preventive checks are always in operation in a civilized society, for positive checks are crude. Malthus appealed to his countrymen to adopt preventive checks in order to avoid vice or misery resulting from the positive checks.

 

Malthus argued that human populations tend to grow at a much faster rate than the rate at which the means of human subsistence (specially food) can grow. According to him three factors would control human population that exceeded the earth’s carrying capacity : war, famine, and disease-termed as positive checks on population. They are countered by “preventive checks,” which also control the population but by reducing fertility rates; preventive checks include birth control and celibacy.

Malthus’s theory was influential for a long time. But it was also challenged by theorists who claimed that economic growth would outstrip population growth.

Criticisms of the Malthusian Doctrine:

The Malthusian theory of population has been widely discussed and criticised during the 19th and early 20th century.

Some of the criticisms are as follows:

1. Flawed Mathematical Formula

Malthus claimed food grows arithmetically while people grow geometrically. History has shown this is not a strict law; food production has often grown much faster, and population growth has not always doubled every 25 years.

2. Failure to Foresee New Lands

Malthus focused on the limited land in England. He did not predict the "opening up" of vast fertile lands in the USA, Australia, and Argentina, which provided a massive global surge in food supply.

3. Impact of Technology (The Green Revolution)

He based his theory on the "Law of Diminishing Returns," assuming land would eventually stop producing more. He failed to foresee scientific advancements like chemical fertilizers, better seeds, and machinery that allowed farmers to produce significantly more food from the same amount of land.

4. Ignoring the Value of Manpower

Malthus saw every new person as a "stomach" to be fed (a burden). Critics argue that a person also comes with a "pair of hands" (an asset). More people mean more workers and brains to drive industrial and agricultural production.

5. Wealth vs. Food Supply

Modern economists argue that a nation’s strength depends on its total wealth, not just its food production. For example, Great Britain imports most of its food but remains wealthy by exporting industrial goods and services.

6. Role of Declining Death Rates

Malthus blamed population growth on high birth rates. However, in modern times, population growth is often driven by medical advancements that have lowered death rates and increased life expectancy, rather than just people having more children.

7. Rising Income Lowers Birth Rates

Empirical evidence shows that as people get richer (higher per capita income), they actually tend to have fewer children. In developed nations like Japan and France, the standard of living is so high that population growth has become stationary or even declined, directly contradicting Malthus’ fears.

Malthus was also criticised by liberal and Marxist scholars for asserting that poverty was caused by population growth. The critics argued that problems like poverty and starvation were caused by the unequal distribution of economic resources rather than by population growth. An unjust social system allowed a wealthy and privileged minority to live in luxury while the vast majority of the people were forced to live in poverty