Population dynamics

Population dynamics looks at how the population of a country or a region or even the world changes. It takes into account the factors that increase a population and the factors that decrease population to create a total growth rate. Demography is the systematic study of population. Demography studies the trends and processes associated with population including – changes in population size; patterns of  births, deaths, and migration; and the structure and composition of the population, such as the relative proportions of women, men and different age groups. There are different varieties of demography, including formal demography which is a largely quantitative field, and social demography which focuses on the social, economic or political aspects of populations.

 

All demographic studies are based on processes of counting or enumeration – such as the census or the survey – which involve the systematic collection of data on the people residing within a specified territory.  

 

Demographic data are important for the planning and implementation of state policies, especially those for economic development and general public welfare. 

 

Aggregate statistics that refer to a large collectivity consisting of millions of people – offer a concrete and strong argument for the existence of social phenomena. Emile Durkheim’s famous study explaining the variation in suicide rates across different countries was a good example of this. Durkheim argued that the rate of suicide had to be explained by social causes even though each particular instance of suicide may have involved specific reasons. 

The theory of demographic transition: 

 

This suggests that population growth is linked to overall levels of economic development and that every society follows a typical pattern of development related population growth. 

 

 There are three basic phases of population growth: 

Ø Pre-transitional: High and nearly equal birth and death rates  

Ø Transitional: declining death rates and after a lag, birth rates  

·       Early transitional: Decline in death rates but high birth rates continue 

·       Middle transitional: Decline in birth rates and continuing decline in death rates  

·       Late transitional: Continuing decline in birth rates and slowdown in the fall in death rates  

Ø Post-transitional: Low and nearly equal birth and death rates The gap between the birth and death rates during the transition leads to ‘transitional growth’ 

 

Demographic transition is the process through which a population shifts from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates.  

Birth and death rates are two major factors that determine the population growth of a country. The rate of natural increase or the growth rate of population refers to the difference between the birth rate and the death rate. When this difference is zero (or very small) then we say that the population has ‘stabilised’, or has reached the ‘replacement level’, which is the rate of growth required for new generations to replace the older ones that are dying out. Sometimes, societies can experience a negative growth rate – their fertility levels are below the replacement rate. This is true of many countries such as Japan, Russia, Italy and Eastern Europe.  

 

India (1.4 billion) remains one of the most populous countries of the world, representing nearly 17 percent of the world’s population. In April 2023, India’s population reached 1,425,775,850 people, matching and then surpassing the population of China.

Notably, India was the first country in the world to have launched a National Programme for Family Planning in 1952.

 

At present, India adds 15 million people to its population base every year, which is by far the largest in the world. The problematic aspect is that India accounts for about 17 percent of the world population worth only 2.2 percent of the world's land mass.

 

It is noteworthy that India's ongoing population growth is projected to continue for several decades, carrying implications for economic development, employment, income distribution, poverty alleviation, and social welfare measures.

 

 

The Sample Registration System (SRS) provides reliable annual estimates of Infant Mortality Rate, Birth Rate, Death Rate and other Fertility & Mortality Indicators at the National and sub National levels. It is a large-scale demographic survey conducted every year by Office of the Registrar General, India in all States/Union Territories.

 

This Bulletin presents the estimates of Birth Rate, Death Rate, Natural Growth Rate and Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) for the year 2021 for India and its States/Union Territories.

 

 The ‘Bigger States/Union Territories’ in this Bulletin are those having population more than 10 million as per Census 2011.

 

In 2021, the Birth Rate for the country has been estimated at 19.3, whereas the Death Rate has been estimated at 7.5. The estimate of Infant Mortality Rate for the year 2021 is 27 infant deaths per thousand live births.