Hamas attack: Israel-Saudi deal as target

Why in the News?

Hamas, the Palestinian militant group launched a surprise attack on Israel, which triggered the latter to officially declare war against the former in the Gaza strip.

Reasons for the Hamas attack:

1. To disrupt or destroy ongoing negotiations for the normalisation of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, mediated by the United States.
   1. Israel and Saudi Arabia have moved closer and are at a verge of signing an agreement that has potential to bring change in the political landscape of the Middle East. 
   2. It could also mean that support for an independent Palestinian state is no longer a priority for the Arab world, of which Saudi Arabia is the leader.
   3. The attack comes after the US announcement that the “basic framework” of the agreement was in place. 

What is the potential deal between Israel and Saudi?

1. The deal shall entail that Saudi Arabia will recognise Israel for the first time since the latter’s establishment in 1948.
2. The kingdom has so far shied away from formalising ties with the Jewish state primarily because of the Israel-Palestine conflict.
3. The Saudis have been demanding Palestinian statehood since the beginning.
4. However, Saudi presently needs security guarantees from the US (a mutual defence pact) in exchange for recognising Israel.
5. It includes US support for a Saudi civilian nuclear programme and US approval for the sale of sophisticated weapons to the kingdom. 
6. Israel, which is technologically advanced in a wide range of fields, will also help Riyadh move its economy beyond oil.

But how will the formalisation of ties with the Saudis help Israel?

1. Saudi Arabia is the richest and most powerful of the Arab countries and the formal relationship will bring economic benefits to Israel.
2. It would give legitimacy to the State of Israel in the mostly-Muslim region and help the country become a significant player in West Asia.
3. It will bestow political gains upon Israel’s Prime Minister who is battling deep divisions in Israeli society over the policies of his far-right governing coalition such as attempts to muzzle Israel’s judiciary.

And what’s in the deal for the United States?

1. The US wants to counter the growing Chinese influence in the region by giving security guarantees to Saudi Arabia.
2. In April 2023, Beijing successfully mediated an agreement that restored formal ties between the Saudis and Iran, long-time rivals in the region. 
3. The US also wants to improve its fraught relations with Saudi, its traditional ally, as both have several confrontations in recent years, including over the murder of US journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents.

What would the Palestinians get in the deal?

1. Saudi Arabia has publicly said it remains fully committed to the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, in which Arab nations offered Israel normalised ties in return for,

• A statehood deal with the Palestinians
• Full Israeli withdrawal from territory captured in 1967.

2. However, Saudi officials have noted that a deal is possible even if it falls short of providing Palestinians an independent state also suggested for a two-state solution.
3. Even if a deal is reached, it won’t change the reality of the Israeli occupation or the conflict as a whole.