THE HAMAS ATTACK CAN SHAKE THE WEST ASIAN GEOSTRATEGIC ARCHITECTURE

09 Oct 2023 6 mins Download PDF

THE HAMAS ATTACK CAN SHAKE THE WEST ASIAN GEOSTRATEGIC ARCHITECTURE

Why in the News?

The Hamas operation Toofan Al-Aqsa (Al-Aqsa Flood) on Israel has led to launch of retaliatory full-fledged attacks on Gaza by the latter on a war-mode.

Key takeaways:

1. From a military perspective, Israel is not under an existential threat because it can push back Hamas which lacks resources to sustain the campaign.
2. Israel is pushed to revise its strategic doctrines from the experiences of the attach because of:
   1. Intelligence failure of predicting the Hamas attack
   2. Misplaced reliance on hi-tech missile defence and Artificial Intelligence.
3. The Israel-Hamas conflict can further boost the standing of non-state Arab militias, such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, al-Houthis, Islamic State, various avatars of al-Qaeda, and Al-Shabaab.
4. Though the conflict could protract it would remain geographically confined as
   1. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have few all-weather supporters.
      1. The only Arab neighbour of Gaza is Egypt has a pro-West military regime.
      2. All the Gulf monarchies (except Qatar) strongly disapprove of Hamas, calling it a political Islamic outfit.
      3. Although Qatar provides generous humanitarian assistance to the Gazans, it doesn’t want to annoy the US.
      4. Turkey, a big regional Sunni power has a bruised economy with a limited outreach and is also trying to reconnect with Israel and the Gulf monarchies.
   2. Palestinian Authority is vertically split between the West Bank run by al-Fatah and Gaza administered by Hamas, which refuses to recognise Israel. 
   3. Young Palestinians are losing trust with the Fatah gerontocracy as it failed to stop Israeli land grabs in the West Bank.
   4. Iran has been creating weapons and ammunition supply line through Sudan and Egypt to Gaza and is trying to replicate the success of Hezbollah-type proto-state in Gaza to threaten Israel.

Consequences on regional politics:

1. The conflict could include a delay in the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel as Israel would be unwilling to grant the concessions to the Palestinians sought by Saudi.
2. Iran can feel emboldened by its arch-enemy being in mortal combat.
3. Protracted regional turbulence can lead to indirect effects on India:
   1. Collateral damage through an oil price rise
   2. Impact on Indian diaspora
   3. Dim the prospects for India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and other I2U2 constructs.