The Maldives, the evolution of a democracy

Why in the News?

The Maldives, South Asia’s smallest nation-state, held its latest Presidential election successfully, indicating that democracy is thriving and free and fair election has enhanced the country’s international prestige.

Five men, shared future:

1. President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom (1978 to 2008) gave way to a multiparty democracy under a new constitution. 
2. Mohamed Nasheed became the first directly elected President. 
3. Abdulla Yameen, the most pro-China president so far, served his full term (2013–18).
4. Ibrahim Mohamed Solih (2018-2023) became the architect of ‘India First’ policy.
   1. Though Solih had done a commendable work at difficult times such as COVID-19, the Ukraine war, and the global economic slowdown, he was defeated due to the following reasons:
      1. His fight against the currents of history: no incumbent has been re-elected in the Maldives.
      2. The split of MDP party ad failed reconciliation led to loss by the same margin, ~8% of the votes.
      3. Solih’s efforts to effectively counter the disinformation campaign launched by the opposition alliance failed due to absence of Mr. Nasheed, a communicator par excellence.
5. Mohamed Muizzu has been elected as the new President lately.

The path ahead:

1. To focus on domestic priorities of development while leveraging foreign policy to promote his nation’s interests.
2. In external relations, the new administration will have at least three choices:
   1. Revert to ‘India Out’ campaign of former President Yameen
   2. Continue with ‘India First’ policy of the outgoing President.
   3. Innovate a calibrated policy to facilitate balancing of relations with its key partners, especially China and India.
3. Changing world dynamics:
   1. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which Maldives had accepted under the leadership of Mr. Yameen, is currently is in serious trouble. 
   2. The Sri Lankan financial crisis required India’s steady help.
   3. There is currently changed equations between India and the Gulf States, which shall be considered by Maldives.

Notes for India:

1. Though the next phase of regional diplomacy may be complex, there are enough assets and achievements exist to impart confidence.
2. A positive mindset among people of Maldives have been reinforced by extensive development work and numerous small community development projects by India in the island state.
3. India is a major source of tourism, imports and investment and also acts as the as the first responder during an emergency in the Maldives.
4. What more can be done?
   1. The Colombo Security Conclave (comprising India, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Mauritius, Bangladesh and the Seychelles) should be strengthened for ensuring maritime security and the development of the Blue Economy.

1. 2. India has to make efforts in The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) to invite the Maldives as an observer at its next summit.
   3. Additional resources have to be provided so that India’s strategic community and media organisations take greater interest in a small but vital neighbour, to build bridges of mutual understanding and trust.