India's FY25 GDP Growth to 7.0-7.2%: IMF & Deloitte Outlook

Growth Projections and Economic Indicators

• IMF maintains India's growth forecast at 7% for FY25 and 6.5% for FY26
• Deloitte India projects 7.0-7.2% GDP growth for FY25
• Q1 FY25 showed 6.7% growth, slowest in five quarters
• RBI keeps growth projection steady at 7.2% for FY25
• IMF expects global headline inflation to decrease from 6.7% (2023) to 5.8% (2024)
• India's inflation projected at 4.4% for FY25 and 4.1% for FY26

Employment and Sector Performance

• MGNREGA demand falls below pre-pandemic levels, indicating better job opportunities
• Construction sector employment share increased from 11.6% to 12.2% (2019-20 to 2023-24)
• Manufacturing employment recovered to 11.4% post-pandemic
• Services sector employment rose from 28.9% to 29.7% (2022-23 to 2023-24)
• Female labor force participation surged from 22% (2017-18) to 40.3% (2023-24)
• Rural areas showed 22.8 percentage point increase in female participation

Growth Drivers and Future Outlook

Domestic factors supporting growth:

• • Moderating inflation and record Kharif production
  • Increased government spending
  • Strong manufacturing activity
  • Stable oil prices

Emerging opportunities in:

• • Semiconductor industry
  • Electronics manufacturing
  • Clean energy sector
  • Green jobs across multiple sectors

Challenges remain:

• • High informal employment
  • Need for more formal, high-quality jobs
  • Global growth concerns affecting exports