Daily News Analysis

THE EXPLOSION OF DIGITAL UNCERTAINTY

stylish lining

Why in the News?

The Government of India, recently released a comprehensive report on the opportunities afforded by this current wave of Artificial Intelligence (AI). 

What is Digital Uncertainity?

Digital uncertainty involves unpredictability and ambiguities regarding the socio-economic impacts of rapidly evolving digital technologies such as AI, social media, cryptocurrencies, and automation. It encompasses unclear effects on jobs, inequality, security, and privacy, as well as challenges like regulatory gaps and technological misuse. This uncertainty stems from the potential transformation of economics, politics, and social structures by emerging technologies.

Disadvantages of Artificial Intelligence:

  1. Job Displacement: AI automation can lead to the loss of jobs in various industries as machines and algorithms replace human labor.

  2. Bias and Discrimination: AI systems can perpetuate biases present in their training data, leading to discriminatory outcomes in areas like hiring, lending, and law enforcement.

  3. Privacy Concerns: AI can infringe on individuals' privacy through extensive data collection, surveillance, and profiling.

  4. Security Risks: AI-powered tools can be exploited by malicious actors for cyberattacks, making systems and data vulnerable.

  5. Ethical Dilemmas: Decisions made by AI, especially in fields like healthcare and autonomous vehicles, can raise complex ethical questions, such as who is responsible in the event of an accident.

  6. High Costs: Developing, implementing, and maintaining AI systems can be costly, potentially increasing economic disparities.

  7. Limited Understanding: AI's "black box" problem can make it difficult to understand the reasoning behind AI-generated decisions, impacting transparency and accountability.

  8. Job Skills Mismatch: Rapid AI advancements may render some job skills obsolete, leading to a gap between the skills needed and those held by the workforce.

  9. Dependency: Overreliance on AI systems in critical areas like healthcare or finance can lead to vulnerabilities when these systems fail or are compromised.

  10. Lack of Emotional Intelligence: AI lacks emotional understanding and empathy, limiting its ability to provide human-like emotional support and companionship.

  11. Unemployment Concerns: Widespread AI adoption could result in unemployment and social disruptions if adequate job replacement and retraining measures are not in place.

  12. Energy Consumption: Some AI models and data centers consume significant amounts of energy, contributing to environmental concerns.

  13. Loss of Control: As AI systems become more autonomous, there's a risk of humans losing control over them, which can be particularly concerning in military applications.

  14. Regulatory Challenges: Developing and enforcing appropriate regulations for AI can be challenging, leaving gaps in legal oversight.

  15. Dependence on Data: AI relies heavily on vast amounts of data, raising issues of data ownership, quality, and access.

Understanding these disadvantages is essential in navigating the responsible development and deployment of AI technologies.

Scant understanding of the implication:

  1. Threat of Cognitive warfare:

    1. It employs technological tools to alter the cognition of human targets, who are often unaware of such attempts.
    2. They use sophisticated techniques aimed at destabilising institutions, especially governments, and manipulation, of the news media by powerful non-state actors. 
    3. It can alter a population’s behaviour using sophisticated psychological techniques of manipulation.

  2. Investments in intangible assets carries the risk from AI.

    1. Almost a third of companies in the more advanced countries of the world invest more in intangible assets than the physical one, carrying more risk from AI.
    2. Over 50% of the market value of the top 500 companies sitting in intangibles are also deeply vulnerable to AI.

  3. The steps by large firms to migrate to the Cloud, and huge no. of sensors to constantly send out sensitive information, rises the risk of AI.

  4. Government and government agencies are spending significant resources to undo the impact of misinformation and disinformation as AI has led to ‘truth decay’.

What is Cognitive Warfare?

Cognitive warfare also known as psychological warfare is a form of conflict that focuses on manipulating people's thoughts, beliefs, and perceptions rather than using traditional military force. It involves using tactics such as disinformation, propaganda, psychological operations, and cyberattacks to influence and control the way individuals and societies think. The goal of cognitive warfare is to shape public opinion, sow confusion, and undermine an opponent's decision-making abilities, often in the context of political, social, or information warfare.

The Threat of Cognitive Warfare to India

The threat of cognitive warfare to India is significant and can take various forms, including disinformation, propaganda, and cyberattacks. Here are some examples:

  1. Disinformation Campaigns: Hostile actors can spread false information to manipulate public opinion. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, false claims and misleading information about the virus's origins and cures were circulated, causing confusion and panic.
  2. Political Manipulation: Cognitive warfare can influence India's political landscape. In the run-up to elections, fake news and divisive narratives can be used to promote or discredit political candidates, undermining the democratic process.
  3. Cyberattacks: India is vulnerable to cyberattacks as part of cognitive warfare. For instance, the 2020 India-China border tensions saw an increase in cyberattacks targeting Indian government and military infrastructure.
  4. Religious and Ethnic Tensions: Hostile actors may exploit religious and ethnic fault lines. False narratives and manipulated images or videos can incite violence or tensions between different communities.
  5. Economic Disruption: Disinformation campaigns can affect India's economy. False reports about economic instability or corporate scandals can lead to financial market volatility and economic damage.
  6. Geopolitical Influence: India's regional and global influence can be undermined through cognitive warfare. False narratives about India's foreign policies can erode international relations and alliances.
  7. Health Misinformation: Misinformation regarding public health issues, such as vaccination hesitancy, can be amplified through psychological warfare, potentially endangering public health.
  8. Environmental Concerns: False narratives about environmental issues, like air pollution or climate change, can affect policy decisions and public actions.

Cognitive warfare poses a multifaceted threat to India, impacting national security, social cohesion, political stability, and international relations. To mitigate these threats, India needs to enhance its cybersecurity measures, invest in media literacy programs, and develop strategies to counter disinformation and propaganda.

The emergence of AGI:

  1. Currently, many advances in AI are being birthed by the machine itself, which shall lead to the emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
  2. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is termed as AI that is equal and or superior to human intelligence, which will penetrate whole new sectors and replace human judgement, intuition and creativity.
  3. AGI carries the threats of:
    1. Altering the very fabric of nation-states by disrupting real and imagined communities across the globe.
    2. Exponentially rising the social and economic inequalities.
    3. Social anarchy that will rule the streets especially in cities closest to the epicentre of technological innovation.
    4. Breaking down of the concept of trust due to disinformation and imitating known voices with false ones.
    5. Job displacements and economic displacements as AGI’s highly autonomous systems can outperform humans in work, education, social welfare and the like.
    6. Turning digital data into digital intelligence which can enlarge the scope for disruption.
    7. Threat of digital colonisation as AGI-based power centres are based in a few specific locations.
    8.  Data exploitation

AI in Conflict: The Hamas-Israel conflict

  • The recent Hamas-Israeli conflict, sometimes referred to as the Yom Kippur War 2023, highlights the potential for skilled exploitation and manipulation of AI in specific scenarios.

  • Some experts attribute Israel's significant intelligence failure in the conflict to an excessive reliance on AI technology, which was adroitly leveraged by Hamas.

  • AI is fundamentally dependent on data and algorithms for its operation, and it appears that Hamas utilized deceptive tactics to obfuscate its true intentions. This involved distorting the flow of information into Israeli AI systems to its advantage.

In the ongoing Hamas-Israeli conflict, Israel’s massive intelligence failure has been attributed to its overindulgence of AI and a belief in its invincibility, which was skilfully exploited by Hamas to use subterfuges to conceal its real intentions by distorting the flow of information flowing into Israeli AI systems. 

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