India's Economic Growth Outlook

Infrastructure Investment as a Key Driver

Significant public sector investments in large-scale infrastructure projects, including advancements in physical and digital connectivity and improvements in water supply and sanitation, are expected to generate substantial multiplier effects, boosting economic growth.

Sectoral Growth Contributions

The manufacturing and services sectors are projected to continue their robust growth, further strengthening the economy. Additionally, exports in services and key goods like pharmaceuticals and electronics are anticipated to contribute significantly to economic expansion.

Agricultural Prospects and Monsoon Impact

Favorable monsoon rains in 2024 have positively influenced the summer-sowing season for major crops, raising expectations for strong agricultural output in 2025.

Regional Growth Trends

South Asia is forecasted to maintain solid economic growth, largely fueled by India's performance, with regional growth projected at 5.7% in 2025 and 6% in 2026.

Risks to Economic Growth

Potential challenges to this positive outlook include geopolitical tensions, a slowdown in external demand, ongoing debt issues, and social unrest. The region's vulnerability to extreme weather events and climate-related hazards also poses significant risks.

Inflation Outlook

Consumer price inflation is expected to decline from an estimated 4.8% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025, staying within the Reserve Bank of India's target range of 2–6%.

Global Economic Context

Global economic growth is anticipated to remain at 2.8% in 2025, consistent with 2024, reflecting a subdued international economic environment.

Opportunities and Challenges in Resource Utilization

The report highlights opportunities for resource-rich nations like India to drive growth, create jobs, and increase public revenues through rising demand for critical minerals. However, it cautions that these opportunities come with risks, emphasizing the need for forward-looking policies and robust regulatory frameworks to ensure sustainable and equitable resource management.